Why The Apple Watch Is Flopping

The Apple Watch, despite years of hype before it was even announced, appears to be flopping after all.

It wasn’t a good sign when Apple announced shortly before the Watch release that they weren’t going to be breaking out sales numbers. Now, a new report from third-party analysts Slice Intelligence not only show that Apple Watch sales are down 90% since launch—a big deal, since it implies early adopters aren't regaling more cautious buyers with glowing word-of-mouth—but also that Fitbit is outselling Apple in the wearables space. Apple may have already crushed small time smartwatch companies like Pebble, but the Watch has failed to disrupt the larger wearable marketplace.

Imagine if months after the iPad release, we learned it still hadn’t outsold some model of Windows tablet. A couple of million units sold sounds okay, but hardly the sort of smash hit we've come to expect from Apple. A precipitous decline in sales after just a couple of months? Not a good sign.

Will the Apple Watch recover, and sell 100 million units in two years, like the iPad, or three years, like the iPhone? There’s still time—but not at these rates. (Which, to be fair, are projections based on email receipts hoovered up by Slice, not from Apple itself.) Even with generous rounding errors, the Watch has failed to become the status quo object in wearables. And for Apple, that’s a flop.

So how did this happen? The answer may sound like heresy to those who canonize—or even merely admire—Apple's designers. What if the Apple Watch, for all its its milled and woven metals, all its appearances on the catwalk, isn’t actually all that well-designed? So far, the Apple Watch doesn’t seem very useful, and it hasn’t proven that fashionable.

It Just Doesn’t Work That Well

Early reviews were filled with tentative criticism, and convoluted explanations about why you might want an Apple Watch in the first place. The New York Times needed "three long, often confusing and frustrating days" to learn how to use it. Others pointed to poor technical performance and a lack of meaningful apps. Many reviews contained the caveat, "it’s not for everyone…" One influential review byTechCrunch pointed to what became a rallying cry for the Apple Watch’s utility: the time saved by using a screen at a glance—as if teens and grandmas everywhere would relish the option to spend $500 to save the equivalent a few seconds each day. (Seconds that, more often than not, are consumed by a watch alert instructing its wearer to check their phone.)

Major developers complained to us before releasethat Apple had constrained Watch functions too tightly to create rich, meaningful experiences. Presumably to preserve the Watch’s limited battery life, apps ran on the iPhone, the sensors and Taptic Engine were off-limits, and many graphical elements had to be streamed to the Watch instead of being generated natively. Apple has sincereleased a new SDK to remedy some of these limitations, which will certainly improve the app experience, however un-killer they all, so far, have been.

From a user-experience standpoint, it's unclear that Apple ever figured out how people were really supposed to interact with the Watch. Consider that it contains four different types of notifications: a "glance," a short look notification, a long look notification, and another style of notification that pops up only inside a digital watchface. Sometimes they'll have the information you need. Sometimes they'll prompt you to open an app on your iPhone. Never do they indicate that Apple figured out one perfect way to use a tool of their own invention. And despite having three different types of touch interface—basic touch-screen interaction, Force Touch, and the Digital Crown—the watch still leans heavily on Siri, Apple's voice recognition agent, who remains fairly dense and hard of hearing.